2020-02-19 02:36:00 阅读：198498
y 8.8% Yahoo fell by 9%. Twitter, already having one of its worst months in the stock market, fell 11%. Google was one of the few large-cap tech shares to fare better than the NASDAQ, but it still declined 6.6% last week. Related Stories
Markets Fall After Trump Threatens Tariffs on China tk100.com2020彩图 Business Uber's IPO Filing Reveals Billion-Dollar Revenue Overshadowed by Losses
None of these companies announced any grim development that could have triggered a selloff last week. Instead, they are caught up in a downdraft of selling that was triggered by events well beyond Silicon Valleycontinued collapse of the Chinese stock mar
ket, the prolonged slump in global commodity prices, and the erosion of currency valuations against the dollar in emerging markets. These days, the most successful tech companies are global enterprises, so its not surprising that they would be affected somewhat by turmoil overseas. After all, these external factors have been haunting tech companies for months. Weaker currencies abroad, for example, are tied to a strong dollar, which can erode overseas revenues of multinationals. But even so, big tech had been seen as a safe haven amid the global turmoil. Yes, Apple has exposure to China, but Facebook and Netflix dont. And besides, Apple and Microsoft offer the kinds of dividends investors seek out in uncertain times. And nearly all of them were promising years of growth from the business models they helped pioneer. Hence the vexing question: Why would they be sold off more har
shly than other sectors where multinationals dominate? Some of the easy answers arent satisfactory. Yes, trading is seasonally light in August, but these are some of the most actively traded stocks. Yes, some like Netflix are overvalued, but Apple and Microsoft have P/Es of 12 and 16, respectivelybelow the SP 500s ratio of 20. So why has Apple officially entered bear territory?
Get The Brief. Sign up to receive the top stories you need to know right now.
Thank you! For your security, we've sent a confirmation email to the address you entered. Click the link to confirm your subscription and begin receiving our newsletters. If you don't get the confirmation within 10 minutes, please check your spam folder. There is another explanation, having more to do with what may be a shift in the mindset of investors who grew accustomed to expecting high-growth from tech companies. Currency crises and panics in large overseas markets may not have anything directly to do with whether Americans will buy mor
e smartphones, but they can signal big shifts in financial cycles. Nobody is sure yet whether what happened last week was a correction or the beginning of a new bear market. Corrections are unpleasant but usually temporaryand they are often necessary before promising stocks can advance higher. But a bear market, which the US stock market hasnt seen in six years, would slow down revenue growth and potentially even the profits. And thats whats most likely worrying investors. This is an old bull market, ready to be put out to pasture. And the overseas turmoil may be, if youll allow the mixing of metaphors, the straw that breaks the aging bulls back. In other words, the tech selloff last week may reflect a growing sense of nervousness among large fund managers that have been buying not just publicly traded shares like Apple and Google, but investing in private rounds of newer companies like Uber and Airbnb with an aggression never seen before in previous tech bull markets. These private tech companiescalled unicorns because a billion-dollar valuation for a private startup was once unheard of (although now there are 131 of them)dont have financial data available to public scrutiny. Its hard to know which of them are even close to making a profit. Or, more crucially, whether they have enough cash to carry them to profitability should the economy slow down in the future. Individual investors have been largely shut out of investing in these companies, but institutional investors like mutual or private-equity funds have bought into them on a scale that wasnt even dreamed of during the d
ot-com boom. And after last week, those fund managers may be wondering if they overextended themselves in the tech sector by gorging on these private rounds. Spotlight Story Kobe Bryant Had a Singular Impact on His Game and the World Bryant died in a helicopter crash near Los Angeles on Sunday, along with his daughter Gianna If the selloff is more than a correctionthat is, if its a true bear marketmany funds could be left having to write down losses from these private investments when their valuations drop. And unlike stocks in the public market, privately held shares are much harder to sell because they are illiquid. Some funds may already be selling their public tech shares at a profit as a hedge against this risk. A few venture capitalists have been warning about this danger for a while. Bill Gurley of Benchmark, a veteran of the dot-com crash, has been sounding for a while like the VC version of Cole Sear, saying he sees dead unicorns this year. Last week, noting the drop in tech stocks, he warned again that investors would soon shift their focus from revenue growth to profitability. Others joined him in predicting zombie unicorns. These warnings are coming from VCs who, unlike the rest of us
, are in a position to see the financial health of many private tech companies. The day may come when the small investors who were barred from buying shares in these so-called unicorns are glad they never had the chance. In the meantime, the mere prospect of dying unicorns seems to be scaring fund managers. Scaring them even more than whats happening in China. Contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.